What is the impact of the central bank ’s overall RRR cut?
Beginning in 2020, the central bank will release 800 billion yuan of funds, and the national property market will soon enter a new stage. The anchoring of LPR's new interest rate system has changed the way in which more banks' mortgage pricing is changed, but for buyers, the actual interest rate has little effect. Analysts pointed out that the overall RRR cut indicates the further release of liquidity, and it is expected that the LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) as an indicator of housing loans in the future may be further reduced, thereby reducing the cost of buying a house. On the other hand, under the keynote of "no housing and speculation," the financial supervision of real estate is still under high pressure, and the reduction in real estate standards will not lead to the concentrated release of real estate demand.
From January 6th, the central bank's RRR cut officially started. <br /> Central Bank's website January 1, 2020 News: In order to support the development of the real economy and reduce the actual cost of social financing, the People's Bank of China has decided to reduce finance on January 6, 2020. Institutional deposit reserve ratio of 0.5 percentage points (excluding finance companies, financial leasing companies and auto finance companies).
A relevant official of the central bank said that the current RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut, reflecting counter-cyclical adjustments. It will release about 800 billion yuan of long-term funds, effectively increase the stable funding sources of financial institutions to support the real economy, and reduce the financial institutions' support for the real economy. The cost of capital directly supports the real economy.
After the RRR cut, relevant persons also said that the operation was not a flood, and the direction of sound monetary policy has not changed.
Regardless of whether it is flood irrigation or drip irrigation, for the understanding of "water release", here are some of the most basic science popularizations: the two most important and powerful easing measures at present include reduction of standards and interest rates. A reduction in the reserve means a reduction in the reserve ratio and an increase in the currency in the market; a reduction in interest rates causes the currency in the market to become cheaper.
Existing housing loans will not be directly affected. <br /> Is the reduction in the real estate market good? The central bank chose to lower the quota at this moment. Is it true that the property market will rebuild Xiaoyangchun? Is it appropriate to choose a home purchase at this time?
From the perspective of the mortgage interest rate, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the adjustment of LPR quotations in January 2020 will not be ruled out after the RRR cut, which has a relatively large impact on the real estate market. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate also believes that the RRR cut has greater support for bank liquidity, which will help to ease bank loan policies in the future, and for home buyers to obtain relatively stable credit prices for mortgages.
So can stock mortgages also benefit? According to the new policy of the "anchor swap" of the existing floating interest rate loans issued a few days ago, the added value should be equal to the difference between the latest execution interest rate of the original contract and the corresponding term LPR issued in December 2019. The existing commercial mortgage interest rate will be carried out this year. The interest rate linked to the LPR after the "anchor change" is the same as the previous interest rate and will remain unchanged this year, so the existing mortgages will not be directly affected.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center at the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the reduction is a comprehensive reduction, which is more significant than a directional reduction. At the same time, the release of the RRR cut on New Year's Day has set the tone for the work of "releasing liquidity and reducing costs" in 2020, and will also make adjustments to the subsequent scale of loans and interest rates. The current RRR cut continues to emphasize not flood flooding, but also continues to reflect that the RRR cut will not be accomplished overnight, but will follow the guidance of market stability, fully reflecting the signals of stable reform and small stimulus.
Zhang Bo, director of the branch office of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, believes that the RRR cut will start at the beginning of the year, indicating that the pace of liquidity relaxation will continue in 2020. While maintaining reasonable and adequate liquidity, the scale of money and credit and social financing will increase for real estate. The impact of this is reflected in two points: first, the amount of personal housing loans in the first quarter will be relatively generous, and at the same time, LPR will increase the downward momentum synchronously, driving the overall property market to heat up after the Spring Festival; the second is that the benefits to development companies are limited, and the cost of financing or There has been a decline, but the difficulty of financing is still difficult to say.
It will not cause the concentrated release of demand. <br /> As for the impact on the property market transactions, Yan Yuejin believes that the RRR cut will stimulate market transactions. After the landing is lowered, real estate companies and intermediaries will use it as a marketing breakthrough. The amount of house purchase consultation and actual transaction conditions will increase. However, the purpose of the reduction is not the property market, and the central government's determination to curb house price increases will not change.
Zhang Dawei also believes that it will slow down the downward trend in the real estate market. From the time point of view, there was also a reduction in the level of January 2019. Affected by the reduction in standards and the blowout of talent policies in various places, a round of "Little Spring" in the property market that lasted for 2-3 months appeared. After that, the policy tightened and the market went down. After the landing, the possibility of "Little Spring" in the property market in 2020 will increase.
However, more market participants believe that although the central bank ’s position is a comprehensive reduction, it still hopes that banks will invest new credit in key areas such as small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, and will continue to strictly control new real estate loans. The flexible and moderate RRR cut reflects the flexibility and robustness of monetary policy. It is not a flood, and it is fundamentally different from the last round of continuous RRR cuts, which will not trigger a concentrated release of real estate demand. The current real estate policy orientation is still "housing and living without speculation", real estate financial supervision is still under pressure, and real estate "risk prevention" is still the main goal. This fundamental tone will not change, meaning that the real estate financial environment will not relax, and the future market Still stable and returning to the supply and demand relationship itself, there will be no major fluctuations.