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Gold and crude oil fluctuated violently, US stocks closed up, can A-shares strengthen again?

Time: 08:12:23, January 9, 2020
Recently, the price of gold and crude oil has performed very strongly. Among them, the price of gold recently hit a level above 1,600 US dollars, and once again hit a high level of several years ago. It is worth mentioning that since the fourth quarter of 2018, the price of gold has risen out of a unilateral rise, and the value-added effect of gold investment has significantly improved in recent years.

In fact, since 2016, the trend of gold prices has basically shown a steadily rising operating pattern. Taking the annual rise and fall as an example, the gold price rose 8.70% in 2016, the gold price rose 12.69% in 2017, the gold price fell 1.88% in 2018, the gold price rose 18.63% in 2019, and the gold price has risen 3.17% since 2020 about. This shows that from the past few years, the performance of the gold price is still relatively optimistic.

As for the performance of crude oil prices during the same period, it showed a big ups and downs. Among them, taking NYMEX crude oil price as an example, it rose 47.24% in 2016, 11.77% in 2017, 24.18% in 2018, and 34.79% in 2019. As for 2020, the price of crude oil has basically remained stable, and it has remained basically the same as the price at the end of last year.

Recently, under the influence of geological factors and rising risk aversion, both gold and crude oil prices have shown a certain strong performance. In fact, since December last year, the risk appetite of global capital has also changed, but the preference for gold and crude oil has increased significantly.

In fact, the recent performance of gold and crude oil prices is largely affected by changes in geopolitical factors. Taking a step back and thinking, if the situation tends to ease, the risk aversion of capital will also decline, and the related price performance will be under pressure. As for the trend of the stock market, it is also affected by changes in capital risk appetite and global capital risk aversion. In the recent market situation, the most eye-catching performance is the gold and oil sectors of the A-share market, while two barrels of oil The changes have once again played a role in stabilizing the market, but after all, the A-share market cannot escape the influence of the two barrels of oil curse, and the psychological pressure on the burden is still not to be underestimated.

On January 8, it can be called the time when the price of gold and crude oil fluctuated violently. Among them, the NYMEX crude oil price rose by nearly 5% from the beginning, and then it fell rapidly. Under the background of the easing of the geopolitical situation, the price of crude oil showed a sharp downward trend, showing violent fluctuations throughout the day. As for the price of gold, although the amplitude of the shock is not comparable to the price of crude oil, it is also inseparable from the performance of the high and low drop.

For the global stock market on January 8, it was affected to a certain extent by the factors of geological instability, and the stock markets in the major regions basically showed varying degrees of decline. Among them, as we are familiar with the A-share market, there has also been an all-day drop of more than 1%. However, it should be noted that the SZSE Component Index and the GEM Index are still above the 5th line position, while the SSE Index is slightly weaker, but still above the gap position on January 2 this year. However, from the analysis of the latest closing performance of the US stock market, there has been a closing performance. The stabilization of the situation has had a positive impact on the trend of global stock markets.

In fact, the trend of the stock market is easily affected by the policy environment and the capital environment. As for the decline of the A shares on January 8, it was affected to some extent by the unstable geopolitical factors. However, even if there are external adverse factors, the capital situation of the A-share market is still at a relatively healthy level. On January 8, the day-to-day trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached more than 770 billion yuan, a highly active market. Volume is the key to maintaining a strong market operation.

The stabilization of the geopolitical situation is also a positive signal for A shares and even the global stock market. For the A-share market, as long as the average daily trading volume of the stock market can remain highly active, there may be expectations that the market will strengthen again. For the Shanghai market, the 3100-point battle will still be staged, but compared with this, the Shenzhen market's trend is quite strong. It may be a high probability that it will pick up again and even reach a recent high point of rebound.

Entering 2020, for the A-share market, opportunities and challenges coexist, but for the current market position, it is still in the stage of rational repair of valuation. However, after the deleveraging process in previous years, the market is still inseparable from the environment of the game of stock funds, and the attitude of OTC funds to the stock market has also become cautious. This limits the height of the market's sharp rise, and A-shares' overall bullishness may still lack some time.

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