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Old Ai Kan shares: Will external conflicts end the A-share bull market?

Time: January 08, 2020 17:02:40 China Finance
Although far away, the tension in the Middle East disrupted the rising rhythm of A shares and ended yesterday's strong upward momentum.

This is the transmission effect between the global stock markets. There was no relationship with us for a dime, but human emotions will be transmitted, causing many funds to escape from risk.

Mainly due to the uncertain international situation, many things are beyond our control and even unpredictable. Like the morning air strike, no one expected to launch a counterattack so soon, and it was still very strong.

What was most unclear in the session was the US side's attitude. The delay in making statements did not make people wonder how the US side would react. The least reassuring thing about the stock market is uncertainty. Once encountering this situation, many people will subconsciously avoid it first.

This is the main reason for the decline in the afternoon, coupled with the recent strong performance of A shares, especially when the external disk fell in the past two days, we have not fallen, and are still rushing upwards, constantly making new highs. Once we encounter the black swan, it will There is a risk of making up.

So today's trend is "hedging + making up for losses", which is why the GEM, which led the gains two days ago, turned around to lead the decline.

However, I have to say that the bull market complex of A shares is still there. A strong counter-attack before midday, the Shenzhen index, the small and medium-sized board, and the CSI 100 0 index all turned red. The good show of walking is staged again.

But unfortunately, the market will not simply repeat, because the situation is different. At that time, it was thought that there would be no war. However, the strong counterattack by the Iraqi side, the risk of starting a war increased sharply, and it is naturally impossible to repeat the trend on Monday.

Therefore, we must do an independent analysis, always keep a calm head, can not lose direction in the flock effect, it is not possible to follow the flow.

In view of the fact that the external situation is completely uncontrollable and uncontrollable, we can only pay more attention to the news and the trend of the outer disk. At night, we must regain our strength and the United States must show its attitude, otherwise it will be too shameless. At the same time, leave more surprises. Not only European and American stock markets, but also international gold and crude oil have to pay attention, which will affect A-share related sectors.

But you don't have to worry too much, as long as very extreme situations do not occur, the impact on A shares is expected to be limited. The major indexes did not close at the lowest point, and there was still a wave of back draws in the end, indicating that there was still a bold entry to the bottom.

This includes foreign investment. In the end, the northward inflow of funds flowed straight again, resulting in a net inflow of 3.4 billion yuan throughout the day. In the circumstances of external storms, foreign investment is not afraid. Why should we be so afraid?

In the long run, the bull market will not change if extreme events do not occur. However, in the short term, due to the unpredictable external environment, we can only wait for the clarity of the news.

Once the external situation stabilizes, including the US stocks have not fallen sharply, tomorrow's A-shares still have the opportunity to rebound. You can maintain a patience, while keeping a close eye on the news and the trend of the outer disk.
Zhongcai
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