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What does a sudden plunge mean?

Time: January 8, 2020 16:52:09 China Finance
Yesterday, Chunlin's evaluation of "there are peak risks in two situations" reminds you that there are two important signs when the market is at the top:

First, similar to the emotional madness around 3200 points last year. At that time Chunlin's entire network proposed, one word: lighten up. Today, there are still many spring fans remembering this bright and bright sword.

Second, the market turnover is abnormal, such as the amount of days released, or suddenly sharply reduced.


There are so many heavy news today.

First, the U.S. military base in Iraq was attacked. Iranian media reported that the U.S. military had killed or injured hundreds of people.

2. According to the latest news from foreign media, a Ukrainian Boeing 737 aircraft carrying 180 people crashed near Khomeini International Airport in Tehran. According to current information, the cause of the crash was a technical problem.


At the beginning of the new year, the world is shrouded in a cloud. Bringing huge shocks to the capital market, gold and oil continued to rise sharply, and the US and European stock markets fluctuated across the board. Today's A-shares opened lower and lowered. The Shanghai index closed its biggest negative line this year. The GEM index fell and tested the five-day moving average.


From a technical perspective, the Shanghai Stock Index is affected by the news, and it is possible to step back to the area near the bottom line of the head and shoulders at 3050 points. Once the gap between 3051-3066 points is fully covered, the opportunity for stabilization may be ushered in at any time .

If current affairs hotspots cool down, the market may appear to counterattack quickly at any time. After all, after the continuous rise, the most uncomfortable thing is to run out of funds, and what they want most is the market callback to provide opportunities for getting on the bus.


However, for many people, when they rise sharply, they look forward to falling, and when they fall, they feel scared, because after the fall, they must be accompanied by various negative news. In a falling atmosphere, this negative will be amplified, which will aggravate it. To people's fear.


Therefore, when you feel that you are in a difficult position, you need to go to Chunge ’s daily review here to find a fair analysis. The answer may not be correct, but you will be practical and try to get rid of emotional interference and give you a rational and clear judgment and analysis .


In the face of today's mid-yin line, Chunge's opinion is very clear. The market here may produce short-term shocks, but it is not a signal that the mid-term market peaks. The main reasons are:

1. Today's decline is more affected by the external situation and global emergencies. This sudden negative is equal to all investors in the market. No one can get the news and escape in advance. It should not Leading to a market top.


Second, after the market becomes hot, there is often a strong emotional inertia. In the early stage, the over-the-counter funds are still in remorse because they did not make a bottom-up in time. So after the decline today, these funds will make up for the regret and flood in. This has led to the turbulence in the rising market, rather than the negative line or the slow decline.


In this sense, plunge prices often do not need to worry too much. Prepare for short-term shock thinking, calmly respond to market fluctuations, and continue to adhere to the long thinking.


Technically, the Shanghai index will step back to the gap of 3066-3051 points, there will be obvious technical support. The short-term GEM index first looks at the five-day moving average at 1,850 points of technical support, and then the ten-day moving average between 1820 and 1800 points of strong support.


Of course, if the external situation exceeds expectations and further deteriorates, the index may fluctuate more widely, but Chunge believes that as long as the overall volume remains at the current level and does not decline rapidly, the upward trend of the overall shock will not be changed.


Recently, Chunge suggested that you focus on the following hot spots:

First, the event-driven plate.


For example, gold, oil, and military themes. These stocks are characterized by the use of topics and are highly volatile, but the disadvantages are also obvious. Once the incident subsides, it is easy to fall quickly. Therefore, for such hot-spot event-driven opportunities, Chun Ge rarely publishes publicly because the development of the event is very uncertain, and it is difficult for ordinary people to grasp the change node.


2. Brokers and Internet financial sector.


In the mainstream sector, brokerage stocks have fallen significantly today, with the index falling by more than 3%. However, from the performance of leading brands such as CITIC Securities and Oriental Fortune , the market's center of gravity is relatively stable and may stabilize and rise at any time. This sector needs to be avoided The main ones are the next new breeds that have recently been lifted. Internet financial stocks have been more active recently, and they are more aggressive in the strong market.


3. Growth technology stocks.


Recently, technology stocks have been active and various black themes have emerged endlessly. From tire pressure monitoring to wireless earphones to the recent MLED themes, they have been active in turns, but they are inseparable, which is the consumer upgrade market around consumer electronics. For example, wireless headphones replace wired headphones, and MLED replaces traditional screens. Brother Chun thinks that the technology sector with real potential must be close to the consumer side and can land quickly. Otherwise, the performance will not keep up with the rising price of the stock price, which will definitely cause the valuation to be abnormal. At the end of the game, all the hype in history is true.


At present, the technology sector closest to the consumer side is the 5G communication industry chain, the new energy automobile industry chain, and the smart phone (wearable device) industry chain. Everyone sees that since this year, hot topics such as tire pressure monitoring, wireless headsets, Tesla lithium batteries, and MLED have all belonged to the aforementioned industry chain. Brother Chun continues to be optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the development of the three major industrial chains mentioned above in 2020.


Fourth, the performance wave market around the annual report performance.


It mainly includes two directions. One is the industries and individual stocks whose annual report performance has exceeded expectations. The speculation here is mainly deterministic. For example, the pharmaceutical and biological , machinery, cement, entertainment, media, and film and television industries have seen a marked rebound in the economy. The other is the theme of the annual report. The recent high performance of some of the best-priced new shares has been strong, in fact, some funds hype such stocks in advance.


When the market is weak, we must pursue certainty. Therefore, over the past two or three years, Moutai and other outstanding performances of the White Horse Cuihua stocks have performed extremely well and stand out. When the market began to strengthen, funds began to pursue high flexibility, and took certain risks to pursue excess returns, which provided new opportunities for technology stocks, mutual gold concept stocks, and some high-send small-cap stocks.


Of course, no matter which type is mentioned above, Chun's philosophy will always be: based on performance, focus on growth, and do more in China. From the pure subject matter hype of performance and growth, for Chun Ge, the only thing to do is to give up and focus on opportunities within his own ability circle. (Zhang Chunlin)
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