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Cao Zhongming: It is inevitable that investors will underrun the market

Time: 08:24:59 January 08, 2020
2019 has ended, and it is time to summarize the gains and losses for a year. In 2019, A shares performed well. Among them, the Shanghai index rose by more than 22%, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange rose by more than 44%. The total market value of the two cities increased by 15.86 trillion yuan. Based on 159 million investors, the per capita profit of shareholders was 99,700 yuan. However, statistics show that only half of the shareholders will be profitable in 2019, which is also a gap from the 100,000 yuan per capita profit.

However, the per capita profit of shareholders of 100,000 yuan has "moisture." On the one hand, a large number of new shares were listed in 2019. As of December 31, 2019, the year-end market value of listed new shares was 3.3 trillion. After deducting this part of the market value, the value added of the two markets in 2019 is 12.56 trillion yuan, and the per capita profit is only 79,000 yuan.

On the other hand, per capita earnings include some growth in the market value of shares that are not involved. For example, the state-owned shares of the five major banks, because they do not participate in circulation, the rise in stock prices will bring about an increase in market value, which will eventually be reflected in per capita earnings. But like the growth of the market value of the five major banks, for state-owned shares, the increase in the value of state-owned stocks does not really reflect the profitability of shareholders. Therefore, the average annual profit or loss of shareholders measured by annual statistics mainly reflects the growth or decline of the total market value, and does not truly reflect the specific profit and loss situation of shareholders.

Although the per capita profit and loss data of shareholders is not accurate, it is of reference significance. At least, the per capita profit and loss situation can reflect the overall profit and loss situation of market investors, which is also an indisputable fact. However, which investors have achieved profit and which investors have made losses, whose stock market value has increased and whose stock market value has decreased is related to the shareholding status and operating level of each shareholder .

The rise of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices in 2019 is not bad, and also highlights the colorful performance of individual stocks. But only half of the shareholders realized profits, which also illustrates the cruelty of the market from the side. In fact, even if half of the shareholders are profitable, the profitability situation is not optimistic. The survey data shows that among the 52.5% profitable shareholders in 2019, 9.6% profit exceeds 50%; 15.7% profit is between 20% and 50%; 27.2% profit is within 20%. It shows that there are not many shareholders outperforming the index, which also means that the vast majority of investors have underperformed the market.

Personally, from the history of the birth of A shares for nearly 30 years, it is inevitable that investors will underperform the market. From the perspective of the shareholders themselves, small and medium investors are in a weak position in terms of information and funds. There are obvious deficiencies in their investment analysis capabilities and decision-making capabilities. All these are reflected in the investment results, which are obviously the vast majority of investments. Those who can't get the expected returns, let alone outperform the index.

The best-performing sector in 2019 is the electronics and food and beverage sectors. In particular, the performance of technology stocks in the electronic sector is even stronger. From the performance of related technology stocks, if the right stocks are selected and they can be held relatively "long-term", the returns will be very considerable. However, A-share investors are more enthusiastic about speculation, but due to the unpredictable market and the uneven investment ability and level of investors, only a few can profit from the market. This fact also determines that investors who underperform the market occupy an absolute majority.

In addition, from years of experience, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices reflect the overall rise and fall of stock prices. Although the profitability of shareholders is also related to the rise and fall of the index, it is impossible for shareholders to outperform the market. After all, in this market, the profitability of institutional investors is often much stronger than that of ordinary shareholders. Even in the bull market, the vast majority of shareholders can achieve profits, but loss-making shareholders still exist. Moreover, the profitability of shareholders cannot be compared with that of institutional investors.

If shareholders want to outperform the market, learn more about trading techniques, study more, look at the market, and think more. In addition to these, there is no other way to improve profitability and profitability.
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